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The MMS is investigating the potential impact of the operation of Floating Production, Storage and Offloading installations (FPSOs) in the Gulf of Mexico. One of the concerns of the MMS is the potential negative effect on the environment from accidental oil releases, and in connection with this they have contracted Ecology and Environment to conduct an environmental impact study. Ecology and Environment will calculate the consequences of oil releases on the marine and coastal resources and combine these findings with estimated frequencies of accidental releases. The work to estimating the frequency of accidental oil releases from FPSO operations has been sub-contracted to DNV. This report presents DNV’s findings.
Scope of Work
DNV’s scope of work includes predicting the frequency of unique accidental releases from operation of a generic FPSO in the GoM. The specification for the FPSO is taken from the “Scenario Report, Environmental Impact Statement on Floating, Production, Storage, and Offloading Systems on the Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf” which provides an outline description of the FPSO and its operation. Where insufficient details are provided in the Scenario Report DNV has used judgement and experience of earlier FPSO risk analyses to supplement the information given. Good practice has been generally assumed.
The scope of the study includes:
The study does not include construction, installation commissioning and decommissioning of the FPSO, nor does it include drilling or work over of the wells. These were specifically excluded from the scope of work by MMS.
In addition to the basecase, the Scenario Report identifies options for the FPSO and its operation that may affect the environmental risk presented. These options have been qualitatively assessed to consider what impact, if any, they have on the overall risk. Also, DNV has identified a number of mitigation measures to reduce the risk due to accidental oil releases.
Abstract
The international maritime community has embraced the need to introduce and adopt security measures to protect vital shipping, facility and port assets from terrorist attacks. This said, the maritime security environment is dynamic and changing, and the specific nature of the threat can vary across time, from country to country, and – within an individual country – from port to port. Threat and risk assessments, and training scenarios, need to become more dynamic, and tailored to specific needs of individual ports, facilities and even vessels. To this end, we introduce a simple set of tools that may allow port and facility managers, and vessel security officers to perform their own individualized risk assessments; specifically the use of risk matrices to help identify their most likely risks, and develop security and training plans accordingly. Very simply, a risk matrix allows the user to identify how serious a risk is, based on the expected destructiveness (cost) of an event, and the probability of that event occurring.
Keywords Maritime security; maritime terrorism; risk assessment; risk matrix; risk analysis
Abstract
This study clarifies the current traffic situation in the Istanbul Strait, TURKEY based on statistical information; 928 data from across 75 years. The main objective is to investigate the risk profile of maritime accidents in the Istanbul Strait, and then to build up a methodology for minimizing human error. Maritime accidents have occurred in spite of existing safeguards. The main reason is that these safeguards do not concern enough the minimizing of human error. Evaluation methods of human behavior are restricted, and it is very difficult to model it among all parameters of the components in a safety system.
The geographical and physical specifications of the Istanbul Strait are investigated and the potential threats defined as the risk profile. Then, proper analysis will be implemented on the resulting statistical information and the factors discussed are called 4M (Man, Machine, Media and Management) both individually and from an aspect of their mutual related effects. The existing safeguards are so evaluated, and their effectiveness is judged through carrying out experimental studies. For this purpose, the Ship Handling Simulator and actual onboard experiences have been utilized. These studies can provide the necessary data for understanding the human factors involved during navigation.
Keywords Maritime Safety; Istanbul Strait; risk assessment; human error; 4M
Abstract
Uncertain input parameters may result from “fuzziness”, “randomness” or “fuzzy randomness”. With the use of fuzzy set theory, uncertain input parameters may be described mathematically as fuzzy variables or fuzzy random variables and may be integrated into safety assessment analysis. With the aid of α-discretization involving the multiple solution of special optimization problems, fuzzy input parameters are mapped onto the uncertain result set. If the deterministic input data are characterized by “fuzziness”, the fuzzy results are uncertain outcomes of the structural analysis; safety assessment may then be carried out using possibility theory. If the input parameters exist in the form of fuzzy random variables, the computed fuzzy failure probabilities may be used for safety assessment. A fuzzy 1st-order reliability method (FFORM) is proposed, which is capable of handling fuzzy as well as fuzzy random variables.